Last updated: October 5, 2026 · By the FXPayback Research Desk
Quick answer: Not yet. On October 4, Iran said the Strait of Hormuz stays closed until the US accepts its seven conditions based on the Islamabad memorandum, while Washington is still pushing nuclear terms first. With no deal, Brent stays near $102, US yields stay high, and gold stays stuck around $4,150–4,200.
Every trader we talk to this weekend is asking the same thing. Is the strait about to open, and should I be positioned for it before Monday’s open?
Fair question. A real reopening would be the biggest market event of the year. But the gap between the two sides is still wide.
What did Iran say about Hormuz this weekend?
Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the strait “will not open until our seven conditions” based on the Islamabad memorandum are met, according to Al Jazeera. Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei put the problem plainly: the US keeps focusing on nuclear talks, while reopening the strait is Iran’s main goal.
There is some movement. Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said Tehran is reviewing US comments on its seven-day proposal, sent through intermediaries, and will give its final position after an internal review, per Iran International. But Fox News reports the latest US counterproposal “largely tracks Washington’s earlier positions on denuclearization.” That’s not a sign of a quick deal.
For traders in Karachi, this story has a local angle. The Islamabad memorandum was signed on June 17, 2026, and Pakistan said at the time it meant Tehran would “promptly reopen” the strait. That promise never fully delivered.
How closed is the strait right now?
Very. The waterway has been largely blocked for more than seven months, since the US and Israel struck Iran on February 28. Roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas normally passes through it, and traffic is down about 95%, Al Jazeera reports.
Tracker Straits.live counted just one vessel transiting on September 27, against a pre-crisis average of about 85 a day. The weekend didn’t help either: a tanker was hit by an unknown projectile in the strait, and the Houthis claimed strikes on Saudi Aramco facilities.
What did OPEC+ decide on Sunday?
Nothing that changes the picture. The seven core OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Russia, kept November output targets unchanged, per The National. Most are already producing below target because of the conflict. With Brent settling at $102.25 on Friday, the market opens the week with oil above $100, a closed strait and no extra supply.
Where do oil, gold and the dollar stand going into the week?
| Market | Friday, Oct 2 | What’s driving it |
|---|---|---|
| Brent crude | $102.25 | Hormuz closure, no OPEC+ increase |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | $4,172.10 | Weak jobs data vs 5%+ yields |
| EUR/USD | 1.1252 | Dovish Fed repricing after payrolls |
| USD/MYR | 4.0820 | High global yields, oil support for ringgit |
| US 10-year yield | Above 5.3% this week | Highest since April 2002 |
Sources: The National, NordFX, Malay Mail, FXStreet.
The Fed side matters as much as Iran. September payrolls came in at just 29,000 against roughly 90,000 expected, and unemployment rose to 4.2%. That cut the odds of an October hike to “well under a 15% chance,” per USAGold. The Fed already lifted rates to 3.75–4.00% in September.
What happens to markets if Hormuz reopens, or doesn’t?
Nobody knows which way this breaks. But you can plan for each scenario:
- Deal and reopening: Brent could drop fast as tankers move again. Lower oil means less inflation pressure, softer yields and a weaker dollar, which is the cleanest bullish mix for gold. Oil importers like Pakistan and Indonesia would feel real relief.
- Stalemate (most likely this week): Brent chops around $100–105, gold stays range-bound, and the FOMC minutes become the main driver.
- Escalation: more tanker or Aramco strikes push oil higher and revive hike fears. Gold may get safe-haven buying, but higher yields cap it.
What are the key levels and dates this week?
- Gold support: $4,100, then $4,000–3,970. Resistance: the $4,280–4,330 cluster, then $4,400 (FXStreet).
- Brent: $100 is the line. A daily close below it would hint the market is pricing a deal.
- Wednesday, Oct 7: FOMC minutes at 18:00 GMT. Any talk of “looking through” oil-driven inflation could lift gold.
- Every day: Iran’s “final position” on the US response. That single headline can outweigh everything else on the calendar.
A candid caution: this is a gap-risk market. If a deal is announced on a weekend, Brent could open several dollars away from Friday’s close and your stop won’t fill where you set it. Size down, check your lot size with our position size calculator, and confirm free margin with the margin calculator. Our guide on how much to risk per trade is worth a re-read this week.
How can you cut your trading costs while waiting on Hormuz headlines?
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Related reading
- Why is oil falling if the Strait of Hormuz is still closed?
- How to get Exness cashback: step-by-step guide
Frequently Asked Questions
Will the Strait of Hormuz reopen soon?
Not on current terms. On October 4, 2026, Iran said the strait stays closed until the US meets its seven conditions based on the Islamabad memorandum. Iran is reviewing a US response, but Washington is still focused on nuclear terms.
What happens to oil prices if Hormuz reopens?
Brent would likely fall sharply as tanker traffic resumes, since about one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas normally passes through the strait. How far it falls depends on how fast shipping and insurance return to normal.
How does a Hormuz deal affect gold?
Lower oil would ease inflation fears, which tends to pull down US yields and the dollar. That combination usually supports gold, even though the safe-haven bid might fade a little.
How can I lower my costs when trading oil and gold news?
Trade smaller during headline spikes, avoid entering when spreads are widest, and use a rebate service like FXPayback, which pays cashback on every lot you trade, win or lose, with withdrawals from $1.
Risk disclaimer: Trading forex, gold, oil and CFDs involves significant risk and you can lose more than your deposit. Prices can gap on geopolitical news. This article is for information only and is not financial advice.