Last updated: October 6, 2026 · By the FXPayback Research Desk
Quick answer: Because more oil is getting out than the headlines suggest. Kpler data shows Hormuz crude flows back above pre-war levels, about 40% of Gulf crude now bypasses the strait, and Saudi Aramco just cut its Asia price to a six-year-low discount. Brent slid toward $100 on October 5 even with Iran saying the strait stays shut.
If you trade oil, Monday probably felt strange. Iran said over the weekend that the strait stays closed. A tanker was hit. The Houthis claimed strikes on Saudi facilities. And Brent still fell.
We’ve had messages from traders in Karachi, Jakarta and Kuala Lumpur asking the same thing: did the market miss the news? It didn’t. It read a different set of numbers.
What happened to oil prices on October 5?
Brent opened the week firm in Asia, trading at $102.60 in early Tokyo hours, with Abu Dhabi’s Murban grade at $110.80, according to Gulf News. Then sellers took over. By the US session Brent was down about 2.2% to roughly $100.03, per Trading Economics. WTI was trading near $90.
So oil gave back most of its war premium in a single session, right on the $100 line that most desks are watching.
Is oil actually flowing through Hormuz again?
That’s the surprise. Shipping analytics firm Kpler estimated flows out of the Strait of Hormuz at 19.5 to 22.5 million barrels a day between September 27 and 29. That’s roughly double the level of a month earlier and above the pre-war average of about 18 million, as reported by OilPrice.com. Reuters called the data provisional, so treat it with some care.
There’s more. About 40% of Gulf crude now skips Hormuz altogether through pipelines, and Iraq’s state tanker company moved 2 million barrels through the strait on a supertanker on Saturday, its first such run in decades, per Al Jazeera.
Iran disputes the picture. IRGC commander Ali Fadavi said only 3 to 4 million barrels a day use US-supervised routes and called that “negligible.” One Kpler analyst even speculated that some Gulf shippers may be paying Iran a cut of their cargo for safe passage, though she stressed that was unverified. Either way, the barrels are moving.
Why did Saudi Aramco cut prices for Asia?
This was the real shock for traders. Aramco cut its November Arab Light price for Asian buyers by $3, to $5 below the Oman/Dubai benchmark. That’s the widest discount since June 2020. Traders surveyed beforehand had expected an increase of $3 to $5, per investingLive.
Why would the world’s biggest exporter cut prices during a war? Because supply is back and it wants market share. JPMorgan data shows Middle East oil shipments have reached 98% of pre-war levels, The National reports. A seller that’s worried about shortages doesn’t hand out its biggest discount in six years.
For Pakistan and Indonesia, both big oil importers, cheaper Saudi crude is a small piece of good news. For Malaysia, a net energy exporter, it’s more mixed.
Where do oil, gold and FX stand now?
| Market | Level (Oct 5, 2026) | What’s driving it |
|---|---|---|
| Brent crude | ~$100.03 | Flows recovering, Aramco Asia price cut |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | ~$4,144 | Weak jobs data vs high yields |
| US 10-year yield | 5.31% | Firm ISM services, sticky costs |
| USD/MYR | 4.0865 | Little changed |
| USD/IDR | 17,916 | Rupiah slightly firmer on the day |
Sources: Trading Economics (gold), Trading Economics (US 10Y), Trading Economics (MYR), Trading Economics (IDR).
Gold isn’t getting much help from cheaper oil yet. The ISM services index came in at 54.9 with cost pressures building, which kept the 10-year yield at 5.31%. Markets still price around an 82% chance the Fed holds this month, per Trading Economics. If you missed our take on the jobs data and the Fed, see our October Fed hike breakdown.
What are the key levels and dates this week?
- Brent $100: the line everyone is watching. A daily close below it says the market is pricing recovered supply, not a closed strait.
- Brent $102 to $103: Monday’s Asian-session high area. Back above it and the war premium is returning.
- Gold: support near $4,100, resistance around $4,280 to $4,330 (FXStreet).
- Wednesday, Oct 7: FOMC minutes at 18:00 GMT (23:00 in Karachi).
- Wednesday, Oct 14: US September CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET.
A candid caution. The flow data is provisional and the Iran story can flip in one headline. A single tanker attack could put $3 to $5 back on Brent before you’ve finished your coffee. Size down, check your lot size with the position size calculator, and make sure you have free margin with the margin calculator before you hold oil overnight.
How can you cut your trading costs while oil whipsaws around $100?
Days like Monday mean more trades. You buy the Asian open, get stopped on the reversal, re-enter, hedge with gold. Every one of those trades costs you spread or commission, whether it wins or not.
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Related reading
- Will the Strait of Hormuz reopen? Oil and gold outlook
- How to trade forex news like NFP and CPI safely
- Why did oil jump 5%, then fade, on Iran strike fears?
- Will the Fed hike again? What the FOMC minutes mean for gold
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is oil falling if the Strait of Hormuz is closed?
Because more oil is moving than the headlines suggest. Kpler estimated Hormuz flows at 19.5 to 22.5 million barrels a day in late September, above pre-war levels, and about 40% of Gulf crude now bypasses the strait by pipeline.
Why did Saudi Aramco cut its oil price for Asia?
To protect market share as supply recovers. Aramco set November Arab Light for Asia at $5 below the Oman/Dubai benchmark, the widest discount since June 2020, while JPMorgan data shows Middle East shipments near 98% of pre-war levels.
Will Brent fall below $100?
It could if the flow data holds up and no new attacks hit supply. But the Iran situation can change in one headline, so nobody can call it with certainty. Use a stop-loss and smaller size.
How does falling oil affect gold?
Cheaper oil eases inflation fears, which can pull yields and the dollar lower over time and support gold. Right now US 10-year yields above 5.3% are still capping gold near $4,150.
How can I lower my costs when trading oil and gold?
Avoid entering when spreads are widest, trade smaller during headline spikes, and use a rebate service like FXPayback, which pays cashback on every lot you trade, win or lose, with withdrawals from $1.
Risk disclaimer: Trading forex, gold, oil and CFDs involves significant risk and you can lose more than your deposit. Prices can gap on geopolitical news. This article is for information only and is not financial advice.