Last updated: October 6, 2026 · By the FXPayback Research Desk
Quick answer: Don’t try to guess the number. Trade the reaction. Mark the big releases (NFP, CPI, FOMC), cut your position size before them, skip the first one to five minutes when spreads are widest, then trade the direction that holds. Keep stops outside the noise, and keep your costs low, because news days mean more trades.
Every month it’s the same story. NFP drops, gold jumps $30 in a few seconds, and somewhere in Karachi a trader who was “sure” about the number gets stopped out twice before the candle even closes.
News trading can work. But not the way most people try it. Here’s the approach we’d actually use.
Why does news move forex and gold so fast?
Because the market is huge and it reprices in one go. Global FX trading hit $9.6 trillion a day in April 2025, up 28% from 2022, according to the BIS Triennial Survey. The US dollar is on one side of nearly 9 in 10 of those trades. So when a US number surprises, almost every pair moves together.
Take the latest jobs report. On October 2, 2026, the US added just 29,000 jobs against roughly 89,000 expected, and unemployment rose to 4.2%. Spot gold jumped about 1% to around $4,223, Kitco reported. August was revised down from 162,000 to 133,000 too. Revisions like that are why the first spike is often not the real move.
Which news events matter most, and when do they hit in your time zone?
While US daylight time runs (until November 1, 2026), these are the usual release times. After that, add one hour.
| Event | US time (ET) | Karachi (PKT) | Jakarta (WIB) | Kuala Lumpur (MYT) | Usually moves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non-Farm Payrolls | 8:30 a.m. | 5:30 p.m. | 7:30 p.m. | 8:30 p.m. | XAU/USD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY |
| CPI inflation | 8:30 a.m. | 5:30 p.m. | 7:30 p.m. | 8:30 p.m. | Gold, US indices, USD pairs |
| FOMC decision / minutes | 2:00 p.m. | 11:00 p.m. | 1:00 a.m. (next day) | 2:00 a.m. (next day) | Everything with USD |
| ISM services PMI | 10:00 a.m. | 7:00 p.m. | 9:00 p.m. | 10:00 p.m. | USD, yields, gold |
This month, mark Wednesday, October 7 for the FOMC minutes and Wednesday, October 14 for September CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET, per Eco3min’s CPI calendar. Smaller data counts too: ISM services came in at 54.9 on October 5 and pushed the US 10-year yield to 5.31%, per Trading Economics.
What’s a simple news trading strategy that actually holds up?
Step 1: Decide before the number, not after
Write down two plans. “If the number is hot, I look for X. If it’s weak, I look for Y.” No plan means you’ll chase whatever candle is biggest.
Step 2: Cut your size
Use half your normal risk, or less. Run the numbers through the position size calculator with a wider stop than usual. Same dollar risk, smaller lots.
Step 3: Skip the first one to five minutes
Spreads widen and liquidity thins at the release. Stops get filled at prices you never saw on the chart. Let that first burst pass.
Step 4: Trade the move that holds
Watch whether price holds above or below the pre-release range. If gold spikes, fails, and closes back inside the range, the spike was noise. If it breaks and holds after a retest, that’s your trade.
Step 5: Put the stop outside the noise
Not at the obvious round number. Behind the pre-release high or low, plus a buffer for the spread.
Step 6: Journal it
Note the number, the reaction, your entry, and your cost. After three or four months you’ll see which events suit you.
What mistakes cost news traders the most?
- Straddling with pending orders. Buy stop and sell stop both trigger in a whipsaw, and you pay the spread twice.
- Full size on the release. One bad fill wipes a week of gains.
- Ignoring revisions. The headline number can mislead when last month’s figure gets cut.
- Holding through the FOMC at 2 a.m. If you’re in Kuala Lumpur, do you really want a big gold position open while you sleep?
- Forgetting costs. News days mean more entries, more stop-outs, more re-entries.
If you scalp gold around data, our gold scalping guide covers entries and spread control in more detail.
How much do news trading costs add up to, and how do you get some back?
Here’s the part most strategy guides skip. A news trader takes a lot of trades in short bursts. You pay spread or commission on each one, win or lose. That’s exactly the cost FXPayback pays back: up to 90% of the IB commission returned to you as cashback on every lot.
A worked example. At the time of writing, Exness cashback on a Standard account is $2 to $3 per lot on forex and up to $5 to $7 per lot on gold. Say you trade four big events a month:
- 20 lots of gold × $5 = $100
- 30 lots of forex × $2.50 = $75
- That’s $175 a month, or about $2,100 a year, on trades you’d take anyway
Trade with another broker? Rates differ, so check the broker’s page, for example our XM cashback page. For more ways to cut costs, read how to reduce trading costs.
We’ve been paying traders since 2020 through 25+ regulated brokers, and you can withdraw from just $1. See the payout proofs for yourself.
Get cashback on every news trade you take at FXPayback.com
One honest note before you go: no strategy makes news trading safe. Gaps and slippage happen even with perfect planning. If a release scares you, sitting it out is a valid trade.
Related reading
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the best forex news trading strategy for beginners?
Wait out the first one to five minutes after the release, then trade the direction that holds above or below the pre-release range, using half your normal size and a stop beyond the spike.
What time is NFP in Pakistan, Indonesia and Malaysia?
While US daylight time runs, NFP comes out at 5:30 p.m. in Karachi, 7:30 p.m. in Jakarta and 8:30 p.m. in Kuala Lumpur. After US clocks change on November 1, 2026, it is one hour later.
Why do spreads widen during news?
Liquidity providers pull back just before and after a big release, so there are fewer prices on offer. That widens spreads and causes slippage, which is why entering at the exact release time is risky.
Is news trading profitable?
It can be for some traders, but nothing is guaranteed. Many lose money because of slippage, oversized positions and chasing spikes. Trade small and track your results.
How can I reduce costs when trading the news?
Avoid entering when spreads are widest, cut the number of impulse trades, and use a rebate service like FXPayback, which pays cashback on every lot you trade, win or lose, with withdrawals from $1.
Risk disclaimer: Trading forex, gold and CFDs involves significant risk and you can lose more than your deposit. Prices can gap and slip during news releases. This article is for information only and is not financial advice.