Last updated: October 16, 2026 · By the FXPayback Research Desk
Gold bounced about 1.5% on October 15 because the dollar and US bond yields slipped, even though wholesale inflation came in red hot. Fed officials signalled they’re in no rush to hike in October, and fresh attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz added safe-haven demand, pulling XAU/USD back toward $4,170.
If you sold gold after Wednesday’s drop, Thursday probably stung. A 1.3% jump in producer prices sounds like exactly the kind of number that should crush a non-yielding metal. It didn’t. Here’s why, and what we’re watching next.
What happened to gold on October 15?
Gold traded around $4,168.70 an ounce, up roughly 1.5% on the day, according to Trading Economics. That came right after Wednesday’s slide below $4,100, the lowest level since early August. Silver joined in, rising about 2% after a 5.9% drop the day before, per USAGOLD’s daily report.
For perspective, gold is still about a quarter below its January 2026 record of $5,608. So this is a bounce inside a downtrend, not a new bull run. Not yet, anyway.
How hot was the September PPI report?
Very hot. US producer prices rose 1.3% in September against a 0.5% forecast, taking the annual rate to 6.3%, as Babypips reported. That’s the biggest monthly gain in more than four years. Energy did most of the damage: energy goods rose 10.8% and gasoline jumped 20.3% in a single month.
| September data (released Oct 15) | Actual | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| PPI, month on month | +1.3% | +0.5% |
| PPI, year on year | 6.3% | n/a |
| Core PPI, month on month | +0.5% | n/a |
| Retail sales, month on month | +0.8% | +0.3% |
| Retail control group | +0.1% | +0.3% |
Look at that last row. Strip out gas and cars and US shoppers barely spent more. Traders read it as a sign that high fuel prices are starting to squeeze everything else.
Why didn’t hot inflation sink gold this time?
Because the market cares more about what the Fed does than about one inflation print. Three things lined up for gold:
- The Fed sounded patient. Mary Daly, Michelle Bowman and John Williams all signalled no urgency to tighten in October, and futures pared back hike bets, according to FOREX.com.
- Yields and the dollar eased. The same analysis shows 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields on track for their biggest weekly drop since February. Lower yields make holding gold cheaper.
- Hormuz flared up again. At least 10 vessels have been attacked in or near the strait since Sunday, and October has already seen 23 attacks, nearly double the monthly average since the war began, per Daily Trust.
Brent crude sat near $105.72 on October 15, per Trading Economics. That keeps inflation pressure alive, which matters a lot if you trade from a fuel-importing economy in Asia or watch Gulf markets closely.
Will the Fed hike on October 28?
It’s close to a coin flip that’s leaning “no.” Before the September CPI, CME FedWatch priced about a 22% chance of a 25 bp hike. Odds jumped to around 50% right after the 3.7% CPI print, then cooled to 31.6% by the evening of October 14, as FinanceFeeds tracked. A December move is still priced near 90%.
The Fed’s current range is 3.75%–4.00% after the September hike. The meeting runs October 27–28, and the next CPI doesn’t land until November 10, so Fed speeches carry extra weight between now and then.
What are the key gold levels to watch?
- $4,100: Wednesday’s low zone. A daily close below it reopens the August lows.
- $4,180–4,185: roughly where gold traded on October 13. It’s the first real test for this bounce.
- $4,285: Trading Economics’ quarter-end model estimate. Treat it as a reference, not a target.
A candid word on risk: when a single headline about a ship in the Gulf can move gold $40 in minutes, stops get hit more often. Cut your size. Our position size calculator does the maths for you, and if you’re unsure how much a $10 move costs you per lot, read what a pip is worth on gold.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Why did gold go up after a hot PPI report?
Because Fed officials signalled no rush to hike in October, Treasury yields and the dollar eased, and new attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz lifted safe-haven demand. Those forces outweighed the inflation surprise on October 15.
What was the US PPI for September 2026?
Producer prices rose 1.3% month on month against a 0.5% forecast, and 6.3% year on year. Energy goods rose 10.8% and gasoline 20.3%.
Will the Fed raise rates in October 2026?
Markets are leaning against it. CME FedWatch odds for an October 28 hike were about 31.6% on the evening of October 14, while a December hike was priced near 90%. This can change quickly with Fed speeches.
How can I reduce costs when trading gold in volatile markets?
Trade smaller, avoid entering seconds before big data, and use a rebate service like FXPayback, which pays cashback on every lot you trade, win or lose, with withdrawals from $1.
Risk disclaimer: Trading forex, gold and CFDs involves significant risk and you can lose more than your deposit. This article is for information only and is not financial advice.