Last updated: October 9, 2026 · By the FXPayback Research Desk
Quick answer: Oil jumped about 5% on October 8 because reports said the White House had asked the Pentagon for fresh Iran strike options, Iranian attacks on Hormuz tankers were rising, and a storm shut US Gulf of Mexico output. Brent hit $105, then slipped toward $103 after Trump said the US won’t attack Iran before the midterm elections.
Two days ago we were asking why oil was falling while Hormuz stayed closed. Now Brent is back above $100 and charts look like a heart monitor. If you were short crude from Monday, you felt it.
Traders in Karachi, Jakarta and Dubai have been asking us the same thing all evening: is this a new leg up, or another headline spike that fades by Friday? Let’s break it down.
What happened to oil prices on October 8?
Brent crude rose above $105 a barrel, a jump of about 5%, while WTI gained 5.1% to around $92.75, according to Euronews. The trigger was a report that the Pentagon told US Central Command to finish preparing for a possible return to “major combat operations” against Iran. No date was set.
Then the reversal. In a Truth Social post, Trump wrote that “we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections,” per CBS News. Brent slid from about $105 to about $103. Trading Economics still had Brent up roughly 3.7% on the day near $103.90.
Why are traders worried about supply again?
Strike talk was the spark. The fuel was already there:
- Tanker attacks are rising. Reuters, citing a US Navy-led information service, counted a dozen attacks between September 28 and October 2, as reported by OilPrice.com. Last week saw the most attacks of any week since the war began.
- Hormuz traffic is thin. Kpler data showed tanker traffic on October 6 at its lowest since late July. Before the war, the strait carried about 20% of global oil and fuel, per Reuters via Yahoo Finance.
- A storm hit US supply. Producers shut more than 500,000 barrels per day of Gulf of Mexico output ahead of Isaias.
- US stockpiles are falling. EIA data showed crude inventories dropped 3.2 million barrels to 424.1 million, almost double the 1.7 million draw analysts expected.
The G7 plan to release 100 million barrels from reserves helped push oil down earlier this week. But as ANZ’s Daniel Hynes put it, stock releases “do not create new production capacity.” They buy time. They don’t fix Hormuz.
How did gold, the dollar and Asian currencies react?
| Market | Level (Oct 8, 2026) | What drove it |
|---|---|---|
| Brent crude | ~$103.90 (high above $105) | Strike reports, tanker attacks |
| WTI crude | ~$92.75 at the high | Gulf of Mexico shut-ins |
| Gold (spot) | $4,118.63, up $31.91 | Safe-haven bid after 2-month low |
| US 10-year yield | 5.32% | Oil-driven inflation fears |
| USD/IDR | 17,915 (rupiah -28 points) | War risk, strong dollar |
Sources: CNBC (gold at 9:00 a.m. ET), Euronews, Media Indonesia.
Gold’s bounce was modest. That’s the same tug-of-war we keep seeing: war headlines pull gold up, but expensive oil feeds inflation, which keeps the Fed hawkish and yields above 5%. The Fed’s target range is 3.75%–4.00% after September’s hike, and futures still price only about a 19% chance of another hike at the October 27–28 meeting, per DailyForex.
For Pakistan and Indonesia, both big fuel importers, $100+ oil is bad news for the import bill. For Gulf traders it cuts both ways: higher prices help producers, but only if barrels actually get out through Hormuz.
What are the key levels for oil and gold now?
- Brent $105–106: Thursday’s high. A daily close above it would say the market believes the escalation story.
- Brent $100: the big psychological line. Losing it again means the “no strikes before midterms” message is winning.
- WTI $87.68: key support that held this week, per DailyForex.
- Gold $4,066: Wednesday’s two-month low, per FXStreet. Gold $4,200 is the first real resistance above.
An honest word on risk. This market moves on a single post. Brent swung about $2 within hours on Thursday, and that can blow through a tight stop on a full lot. Size down, keep stops where your idea is actually wrong, and run your numbers through the position size calculator before you click buy. If you missed our earlier piece on why oil fell while Hormuz stayed closed, it explains the other side of this tug-of-war.
How can you cut your trading costs when oil and gold whipsaw?
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Frequently Asked Questions
Why did oil prices jump on October 8, 2026?
Reports said the White House asked the Pentagon for Iran strike options, Iranian attacks on Hormuz tankers were rising, and a storm shut more than 500,000 barrels per day of US Gulf output. Brent rose about 5% to above $105.
Why did oil fall back after the spike?
Trump posted that the US will not attack Iran before the midterm elections. That eased fears of an immediate escalation, and Brent slipped from about $105 to about $103.
Is gold going up because of the Iran war?
Only a little. Spot gold rose about $32 to $4,118.63 on October 8 after a two-month low. High oil also lifts inflation and US yields, which limits how far gold can rally.
How can I reduce costs when trading oil and gold in volatile markets?
Trade smaller size around headlines, avoid entering when spreads are widest, and use a rebate service like FXPayback, which pays cashback on every lot you trade, win or lose, with withdrawals from $1.
Risk disclaimer: Trading forex, gold, oil and CFDs involves significant risk and you can lose more than your deposit. Prices can gap on geopolitical and central bank news. This article is for information only and is not financial advice.