FOMC Minutes: Will the Fed Hike Again? Gold & USD

Last updated: October 8, 2026 · By the FXPayback Research Desk

Quick answer: Yes, the Fed is leaning toward another hike. Minutes of the September 15–16 meeting, released October 7, show most officials think one more rate increase will likely be needed by year end. That pushed the dollar up and gold briefly below $4,100, a two-month low, because higher rates make non-yielding gold less attractive.

If you were watching XAU/USD late last night, you saw it. Gold was already soft before the minutes came out at 23:00 Karachi time (01:00 in Jakarta and Kuala Lumpur). Then the text confirmed what the market feared: the Fed isn’t done.

So is this another leg down for gold, or just noise? Let’s look at what the Fed actually said.

What did the FOMC minutes actually say?

In September the Fed raised its target range by 0.25 points to 3.75%–4.00%, its first hike since July 2023, as Admiral Markets reported. The minutes, published on the Federal Reserve’s website, add three things traders care about:

Every participant supported the hike. No dissent at all.
“Most participants” think another increase would likely be appropriate by year end. That’s the line that hit gold.
Oil is the worry. Many officials said the longer energy prices stay high, “the greater the risk” that costs spread into wider inflation. Fed staff put August PCE inflation at 3.8%, with core at 3.4%.

Officials were split on one point, though. Some called the September move “insurance” against inflation staying above target. Others see it as the start of a proper tightening cycle. That split is why the market isn’t pricing a hike for this month yet.

How did gold and the dollar react?

Gold took the hit early. CNBC’s spot reading had gold at $4,086.72 at 9:00 a.m. ET on October 7, down about $83 from the same time a day earlier. It touched a two-month low of $4,066 before clawing back to around $4,115 after the minutes, per FXStreet.

Market	Level (Oct 7, 2026)	Why it moved
Gold (XAU/USD)	~$4,115 (low $4,066)	Hawkish minutes, high yields
US Dollar Index	102.24 (+0.40%)	More hikes priced for year end
US 10-year yield	5.27%	Off a 24-year high of 5.365%
WTI crude	$88.45 (-1.66%)	Supply worries easing
USD/MYR	~4.086	Little changed

Sources: FXStreet, Trading Economics.

Here’s the interesting part. Money markets still give only about a 19% chance of a hike at the next meeting and 80% for a hold, according to the same FXStreet report. So the minutes didn’t change the near-term call. They changed the year-end picture. If you read our take on the PCE data and October hike odds, this fits: a pause now, but the door to December is wide open.

Why does a Fed hike hurt gold and Asian currencies?

Gold pays no interest. When a US 10-year bond pays over 5%, holding a metal that pays nothing gets expensive. A stronger dollar also makes gold pricier for buyers in Jakarta or Karachi, which cools physical demand.

For the rupiah, it’s the same squeeze. USD/IDR closed at 17,911 on October 6, per Bisnis.com, with local analysts expecting a tight 17,850–17,950 range this week. A hawkish Fed tends to pull money back to the US, and that’s rarely good news for emerging-market currencies.

What’s holding gold up at all? Two things. China’s central bank has bought gold for 23 straight months, and cheaper oil eases the inflation story the Fed keeps pointing to.

What are the key gold levels to watch now?

These are the zones most desks are watching, based on FXStreet’s technical read:

$4,100: the line gold keeps testing. A daily close below it is a bearish signal.
$4,000 and $3,996: the round number and the July 29 swing low.
$3,941: the year-to-date low. Lose that and the trend is clearly down.
$4,200, then $4,267 and $4,331: resistance, with the last two being the 100-day and 50-day moving averages.

Coming up: US jobless claims on Thursday and the University of Michigan survey on Friday. On the geopolitical side, US Vice President JD Vance said Iran must cut its nuclear enrichment capacity to end the war. Any surprise on that front can move oil, and oil now moves the Fed.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What did the Fed minutes say about future rate hikes?

The minutes of the September 15–16 meeting show most participants think another rate increase will likely be appropriate by the end of 2026, though each meeting remains open and decisions depend on incoming data.

Why did gold fall after the FOMC minutes?

Because more hikes mean higher US yields and a stronger dollar. Gold pays no interest, so it loses appeal when the US 10-year yield sits above 5%. Gold hit a two-month low of $4,066 on October 7.

Will the Fed raise rates in October 2026?

Markets don’t expect it. Pricing on October 7 showed about a 19% chance of a hike at the next meeting and 80% for a hold. A December move is seen as more likely if inflation stays high.

What is the current Fed funds rate?

The target range is 3.75% to 4.00% after the 25 basis point hike in September 2026, the first increase since July 2023.

How can I reduce my costs when trading gold in a volatile market?

Trade smaller size during big news, avoid entering when spreads are widest, and use a rebate service like FXPayback, which pays cashback on every lot you trade, win or lose, with withdrawals from $1.

Will the Fed Hike Again? What the FOMC Minutes Mean for Gold